أخبار دولية

هل ستندلع الحرب العالمية الثالثة؟

بعد إطلاق كوريا الشمالية لصواريخها والتي مرّت على الصّين كتهديد لهته الأخيرة، يتساءل الكثير من المحللين السياسيين عن مستقبل السلام العالمي، فقال يفغيني أكاتوف في صحيفة “ترود” بمناسبة ذكرى بدء الحرب العالمية الثانية: هل كان هذا النزاع الكوني المسلح هو الأخير على الأرض؟

كتب أكاتوف:

يصادف يوم 1 سبتمبر/أيلول، الذكرى الـ 78 لاندلاع الحرب العالمية الثانية. وهنا لن ندخل في نقاش حول المآسي، التي جلبتها هذه الحرب للبشرية. ولكننا نسأل: هل كانت هذه الحرب العالمية هي الأخيرة على الأرض؟ فقد أصبح من الصعب الجواب على هذا السؤال بـ “نعم” في الفترة الأخيرة. حتى ليبدو أحيانا أن الدخان بدأ ينبعث من فتيل الحرب. وها هي كوريا الشمالية تطلق قبل أيام صاروخا بالستيا حلق في أجواء اليابان قبل سقوطه في المحيط الهادئ. وقد أصبح التهديد بالهراوة النووية أمرا مألوفا، وإن الحرب الباردة قد اشتعل فتيلها فعلا… فماذا بعد؟

يقول رئيس تحرير مجلة “الدفاع الوطني” إيغور كوروتشينكو: لا يمكننا تجاهل إمكانية نشوب الحرب العالمية الثالثة في ظل السياسة الراهنة للولايات المتحدة. وروسيا تبذل كل ما في وسعها لمنع تهيؤ ظروف يمكن معها نشوب نزاع مسلح واسع النطاق، وتشاركها الصين في هذا المجال.

ولكن السلام كما قيل هو “نتاج عدم المواجهة بين طرفين“.

لذلك، على كوريا الجنوبية التخلي عن المناورات الاستفزازية، وعلى كوريا الشمالية تجميد برامجها النووية. بيد أن العودة إلى العقل ليست سهلة اليوم، لأن الجميع يلوح بالسلاح حولنا، أو يخفون رؤوسهم في الرمل.

أما المحلل السياسي العسكري سيرغي ميلكوف، فيقول: يزداد خطر اندلاع نزاع واسع النطاق في العالم رغم أن معظم البلدان غير جاهزة للدخول في نزاع عالمي مسلح، كما حصل في الحرب العالمية الثانية، وأن الدول المتطورة بغض النظر عن خطابات الحرب الباردة، تريد الاستقرار. وإن معظم الحروب تندلع عندما لا تتمكن النخب من التوصل إلى اتفاق فيما بينها. ولكن الضربات الاستباقية في الحرب المعاصرة توجه إلى وعي الفرد والمجتمع. إي أن الحرب قد بدأت فعلا ومستمرة على قدم وساق، يضاف لها أزيز الصواريخ ودوي المدافع.

ولكن عندما لن يكون بالإمكان السيطرة على الوضع، يجب أخذ السيناريو النووي بالحسبان في التوقعات. والخبراء يقولون إن صواريخ كوريا الشمالية يمكن إسقاطها وهي في الجو. صحيح هذا حاليا… ولكن قد تحدث كوارث إنسانية وبيئية لا تعرف عواقبها.

من جانبه، يقول مدير مركز الاتصالات الاستراتيجية دميتري أبزالوف إن الحرب على شكل جبهة ضد جبهة أصبح في الماضي. والآن تقتصر الحروب على المواجهات المحلية. لذلك لا أتوقع مواجهة مع كوريا الشمالية على المدى المتوسط، وفعلا يمكن اعتراض صواريخها، لكن لديها أعلى القدرات المدفعية في المنطقة، حيث بضربة واحدة يمكنها تغطية نصف مساحة كوريا الجنوبية.

إن فرض العقوبات الاقتصادية ومحاولة عزل طرف ما لن تكون له نتائج إيجابية. فالهند وباكستان رغم العقوبات أصبحتا دولتين نوويتين. لذلك على روسيا وكوريا الجنوبية والولايات المتحدة والصين وضع خطوط واضحة والاستماع إلى جميع المعارضين. لأن من الخطر غض الطرف عن انتشار السلاح النووي في العالم أجمع.

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